JAKARTA – The Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa (PKB) is preparing for a significant meeting next week with former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan to deliberate his potential candidacy in the 2024 Jakarta Gubernatorial Election (Pilkada). This forthcoming discussion underscores PKB’s assessment of Anies Baswedan’s sustained high electability, positioning him as a formidable contender for a return to the capital’s leadership. The move comes as political parties strategize for the upcoming regional elections, with Jakarta, as the nation’s capital, holding immense political and strategic importance.
The directive for this high-stakes meeting originated directly from PKB Chairman Muhaimin Iskandar, often referred to as Cak Imin. Ahmad Iman Sukri, Treasurer of PKB’s Pilkada Desk, confirmed the party’s mandate during a press conference held at the PKB Central Executive Board (DPP) office in Central Jakarta on Wednesday, May 29, 2024. “Indeed, we have been tasked by the Chairman (Muhaimin Iskandar) to communicate with Mr. Anies Baswedan. It is likely that the Head of the Pilkada Desk (Abdul Halim Iskandar) will meet with Mr. Anies Baswedan next week,” Sukri stated, highlighting the urgency and seriousness of the party’s intentions.
The relationship between Muhaimin Iskandar and Anies Baswedan deepened considerably during the 2024 Presidential Election, where Cak Imin served as Anies’s running mate. Despite their eventual defeat in the presidential race, the alliance forged during that period appears to be a foundational element for this new political calculus in Jakarta. PKB’s leadership perceives Anies Baswedan’s political capital, built during his 2017-2022 gubernatorial term and reinforced by his presidential campaign, as a valuable asset for the Jakarta Pilkada. His track record and public recognition within the capital are key factors driving PKB’s interest.
Background and Context: Anies Baswedan’s Political Journey
Anies Baswedan’s political trajectory has been marked by significant roles, from academic and rector of Paramadina University to Minister of Education and Culture, and most notably, Governor of Jakarta. His tenure as governor from 2017 to 2022 was characterized by a focus on urban development, public transportation improvements, environmental initiatives, and social programs. Projects such as the Jakarta International Stadium (JIS), flood mitigation efforts, and the expansion of public transport networks like TransJakarta and MRT/LRT systems were hallmarks of his administration. While his governorship received mixed reviews, it undeniably solidified his public profile and created a dedicated base of support within the capital.
Following his term as governor, Anies Baswedan embarked on a bid for the presidency in the 2024 elections, partnering with Muhaimin Iskandar. Their campaign, dubbed the ‘AMPM’ pair, championed themes of change, justice, and economic equity. Despite not winning the presidency, the campaign allowed Anies to extend his reach beyond Jakarta, gaining national recognition and testing his appeal across diverse demographics. In Jakarta itself, the Anies-Muhaimin ticket performed strongly, securing a significant share of the vote, which further underscored Anies’s enduring popularity in the capital. This strong performance, even in defeat, is a critical piece of data informing PKB’s current strategy.
The Significance of Jakarta’s Gubernatorial Election 2024
The Jakarta Pilkada is not merely a regional election; it is often considered a barometer of national political sentiment and a crucial battleground for political parties. As Indonesia’s capital and largest metropolitan area, Jakarta represents a significant economic, social, and cultural hub. The governor of Jakarta holds considerable influence, overseeing a massive budget and a diverse population. The outcome of the Jakarta Pilkada can significantly impact the political landscape, potentially serving as a springboard for future national leadership aspirations.
The 2024 Pilkada cycle, scheduled for November 27, 2024, follows closely on the heels of the presidential and legislative elections. This proximity means that the political alliances and rivalries formed during the national elections are likely to spill over into the regional contests. For Jakarta, the election presents an opportunity for parties to consolidate power, showcase their leadership capabilities, and test the waters for the next general election. The competition is expected to be fierce, with several high-profile figures rumored to be considering a run, including former West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil, former Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok), and even Kaesang Pangarep, the son of President Joko Widodo.
PKB’s Strategic Calculus and Muhaimin Iskandar’s Vision
Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa (PKB) is a prominent Islamic-based political party with strong ties to Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Indonesia’s largest Muslim organization. Under the leadership of Muhaimin Iskandar, PKB has sought to expand its influence beyond its traditional base, engaging in broader political alliances and adopting more inclusive platforms. Their decision to back Anies Baswedan, a figure who appeals to a wide spectrum of voters, aligns with PKB’s strategic goal of increasing its electoral footprint and securing key positions in regional governments.
The Pilkada Desk within PKB is a dedicated body responsible for identifying, vetting, and supporting candidates for regional elections across the country. Its involvement in the Jakarta Pilkada signifies the party’s commitment to securing a significant stake in the capital’s governance. Muhaimin Iskandar’s personal directive for communication with Anies Baswedan underscores the strategic importance of this potential alliance for PKB. It also reflects a continuity of the political partnership that emerged during the presidential election, suggesting a deeper alignment of political interests and vision between the two leaders.
Supporting Data and Anies Baswedan’s Enduring Electability
PKB’s assessment of Anies Baswedan’s high electability is not without basis. Various independent surveys, both during and after the 2024 Presidential Election, have consistently shown Anies maintaining a strong approval rating and high recognition among Jakarta voters. For instance, post-election polls focusing specifically on potential gubernatorial candidates in Jakarta have often placed Anies among the top contenders, frequently battling for the lead with other prominent figures. While specific numbers vary between pollsters, a general consensus indicates that Anies’s approval hovers around 30-40% among likely voters in Jakarta, often making him the most recognized and favored choice in hypothetical matchups.
During the 2024 Presidential Election, the Anies-Muhaimin ticket garnered approximately 41.05% of the votes in Jakarta, outperforming their national average and demonstrating a strong localized appeal. This performance in the capital, where they secured nearly 2.7 million votes, serves as concrete evidence of their electoral strength within the region. In contrast, the Prabowo-Gibran ticket secured 48.66% and Ganjar-Mahfud 10.29% in Jakarta. While not a winning margin nationally, Anies’s showing in Jakarta confirmed a solid base that PKB believes can be leveraged for the gubernatorial race. PKB’s own electoral performance in Jakarta, securing a certain number of seats in the Jakarta Regional House of Representatives (DPRD), also gives them a platform to negotiate and contribute to a potential coalition.
The Search for a Running Mate and Coalition Dynamics
Beyond Anies Baswedan’s candidacy, the discussion with PKB will inevitably touch upon the crucial aspect of a running mate for the deputy governor position. Ahmad Iman Sukri confirmed that the party is open to various possibilities, including fielding an internal cadre. “Regarding the deputy and various other matters, it just needs to be communicated,” he stated, indicating flexibility and a readiness to negotiate.
One name that has emerged from within PKB is Ida Fauziyah. Ida Fauziyah is a seasoned politician and currently serves as the Minister of Manpower in President Joko Widodo’s cabinet. Her extensive experience as a legislator and her current ministerial portfolio make her a credible candidate. As a prominent female figure from PKB with a strong NU background, she could potentially balance Anies Baswedan’s profile and appeal to a broader segment of the electorate, particularly among women and traditional Muslim voters. The pairing of Anies and Ida Fauziyah would represent a formidable ticket, combining Anies’s urban appeal and policy experience with Ida’s national government experience and strong party backing.
However, the selection of a running mate will also depend on the formation of a broader coalition. To officially register a gubernatorial candidate pair, political parties or coalitions must collectively hold at least 20% of the seats in the Jakarta DPRD (or 25% of the popular vote in the last legislative election). Given that no single party is likely to meet this threshold independently, a coalition of several parties will be necessary. PKB currently holds a number of seats in the Jakarta DPRD, and a potential alliance with Anies would necessitate cooperation with other parties that supported him in the presidential election, such as PKS, and potentially new partners. The choice of deputy governor will be a critical factor in attracting and solidifying these necessary coalition partners.
Broader Impact and Implications
The potential alliance between Anies Baswedan and PKB for the Jakarta Pilkada carries significant implications, both locally and nationally:
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For Anies Baswedan: A successful bid for Jakarta governorship would provide Anies with a clear pathway back to executive office, allowing him to maintain political relevance and rebuild his political capital after the presidential election. It would also position him as a key figure in Indonesia’s political landscape for future national contests. A victory in Jakarta would demonstrate his enduring appeal and capacity to win elections in a highly competitive environment.
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For PKB: By potentially backing a strong candidate like Anies, PKB can solidify its influence in Jakarta, a strategically vital region. This move could translate into increased legislative seats in the future, strengthen its national standing, and potentially expand its voter base beyond its traditional constituents. It also demonstrates PKB’s ability to form strategic alliances and play a kingmaker role in significant regional elections.
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For Jakarta Politics: An Anies candidacy, especially with PKB’s backing, would undoubtedly make the Jakarta Pilkada one of the most closely watched and fiercely contested elections. It would likely draw strong challengers and ignite robust policy debates concerning the future of the capital. The political landscape in Jakarta would become even more dynamic, requiring intricate coalition-building and strategic maneuvering from all participating parties.
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Broader National Political Landscape: The outcome of the Jakarta Pilkada could serve as a bellwether for the shifting political sentiments in Indonesia. The success or failure of Anies Baswedan and his coalition could influence future national political alignments and strategies of various parties as they prepare for the 2029 general elections. It also reflects the continued fluidity of political alliances in post-election Indonesia.
As the meeting between PKB’s Pilkada Desk and Anies Baswedan approaches, the political temperature in Jakarta is expected to rise. The outcome of these discussions will not only shape the future leadership of the capital but also send ripples across the broader Indonesian political spectrum, signaling new alignments and setting the stage for an intriguing electoral contest later this year. The focus remains on whether this initial meeting will indeed pave the way for a formal endorsement and a formidable challenge in the Jakarta Gubernatorial Election 2024.
